Studious · ArkhamDB

Alright mathematicians, I've got a question that requires some technical wizardry. If I had the option between this and Stick to the Plan, which one gives me better odds of drawing a tarot in my opening hand? We all know SttP thins your deck down by almost 10%, making your opening hand around 1/6th of your deck, assuming the deck is "clean" (i.e. it doesn't have a bunch of clutter from the campaign). Studious here has a similar effect by allowing us to see more cards with our opening hand, which lets us mulligan into our tarot more often. With 6xp put into Studious, we start with 7 cards, about 20% of our deck, so we see about 40% of it if we mulligan as aggressively as possible, right?

I'm not pitting the strength of one card against the other; I'm just curious what the math bears out in this particular scenario. Assuming we mulligan the whole hand, and the deck is clean and only 33 cards, which gives us better odds to draw card "x"? How about if we have two copies? How about if we mulligan 3-4 cards instead of the whole hand? Where do the curves meet up?

Anyway, I was just deckbuilding earlier and started to wonder about it. I think only Lola can actually take both cards, so maybe it'll be useful to someone deep into building her. What say you?

4/12/20

SGPrometheus · 255

Two situations-one with each card--that further increase your odds: 1.) Roland or Zoey with Stick to the Plan AND 1x Astounding Revelation will thin your deck by 4 cards instead of 3. 2.) Joe Diamond with 2x Studious draws his hand & mulligan from a deck of only 32 cards, since his signature weakness is in his hunch deck. — Herumen · 1320 4/12/20

Not useful for Lola because Stick to the Plan is a Reaction Trigger ability on a Guardian card which Lola can't use unless she's in the Guardian role - which she can't be in until AFTER she draws her opening hand. — Death by Chocolate · 421 4/12/20

Carolyn can also run Stick to the Plan with Surprised Rabbi. — Death by Chocolate · 421 4/12/20

What’s Surprised Rabbi? — Django · 2800 4/12/20

@Django Astounding Revelation — TheNameWasTaken · 3 4/12/20

Oh yeah, I forgot that little wrinkle for lola. I guess it's just pure thought exercise then. "Surprised Rabbi" is Astounding Revelation, the card that gives you two bucks if it's in the search, which it always will be since SttP searches your whole deck. — SGPrometheus · 255 4/12/20

The answer is you should run whichever one your class restrictions let you run anyway, because they're both stupidly powerful cards. 2x Studious goes in every Seeker deck I make, and Stick to the Plan in every Guardian deck I make. — StyxTBeuford · 2320 4/12/20

Purely academic answer to a purely academic question: To make it simple assume you use your whole mulligan to search for a card you have one of. Your search is double your initial hand size. You search out of 31 cards (weaknesses don’t count) or 28 with SttP. Studious gets you 12/31~38.7% chance of drawing your card; two Studiouses gets you 14/31~45.1%. SttP gets you 10/28~35.7%. — Kergma · 2 4/13/20

If you hardmulligan for a 2-of tarot card in a 33 card deck with 2 weaknesses(so effectively 31): Hit at least 1 tarot: 54.8%. Same deck with Stick to the plan(effectively 28 card deck etc.): 59.5% Now, with just 1 Studious and hardmulligan for your tarot, which you have 2x in your deck, you see up to 12 cards before you keep 12: 63.2% chance to have it in your opening hand. With 2x studious, you see 14 cards: 70.7%. This goes to reinforce the old wisdom: deck thinning is a fairy tale. You want to draw more cards. To equal 1 studious(1 more card drawn, 1 more card to mulligan), you would need to remove 5 cards from your deck. — Mataza · 9 6/2/20

If you have two of these, does that mean you draw 7 cards during setup step 8? So you could potentially draw another 7 during a mulligan?

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7/8/19

Django · 2800

The card is non-unique and not exceptional, so you could buy two of them. — Daerthalus · 5 7/9/19

And, due to the wording, running two copies means you would start each game with 2 additional cards in your opening hand. — Daerthalus · 5 7/9/19

Is it just me, or does the guy in the art look a little like Lovecraft...? — cb42 · 23 7/12/19

It’s Gilman. — Kozz84 · 1 1/4/20

I don´t understand if you have studious when you draw this extra card and if you mulligan it or not. The card refers to the beginning the game but you draw your opening hand during setup and after the setup ends the game starts. So you begin the game and draw an extra card afterwards or you draw it and mulligan it during setup? The wording is not clear to us. — Rado Gaman · 2 9/9/20

The wording could be more clear, but if that were the case I'd have expected a rules clarification, since the dominant presumption is that it would take effect during setup step 8. It's when you draw your opening hand, and it's the only part of the rules that formally details the process of drawing your opening hand. I can't imagine that's not the intended timing point. — MiskatonicFrosh · 30 10/27/20

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