The expected resources is about 5.0 resources, same as Emergency Cache, in standard token setup. Many "5" give slightly better result, but many above 5 (-6, -8) give poor result. In this reason, this card is not suitable for expert difficulty. If you consider "fun", 21 or bust is good choice unlike Henry Wan, since 21 or bust at least achieves E-Cache.
Additionally, if your deck has Prophetic, 21 or bust may be better than E-cahce. Since 21 or bust has fortune trait, you can play 21 or bust for free with Prophetic. Sadly, Prophetic doesn't have , so that only off-class investigators can do.
Note: additional -5 or symbol token slightly increases the expected resources, and -7 or -8 token significantly decreases the expected resources.
The below is my stratagy. I believe your intuition is better, so please refer this just for fun.
Here is my stratagy to achieve E-Cache. According to the combined value of revealed tokens,
- 11 or less: reveal 1 additional token
- 12, 13: reveal 1 additional token only if and/or was revealed. (exceptional case: stop if you revealed but you bust if you treat as 11).
- 14, 15, 16: reveal 1 additional token
- 17, 18, 19: reveal 1 additional token only if was revealed and treated as 1.
- 20: reveal 1 addtional token with above condition and if 2 or more "1" tokens exist in bag.
- 21 or more: stop
Nevertheless, I believe many of you don't want to stop when the total value is 12 or 13 (including me) for fun. I also give the expectation value when you follow above stratagy but don't stop at 12/13.
NotZ Standard bag] ideal: 4.98, proposed: 4.96, proposed(non-stop): 4.86, 17-stop: 4.76
NotZ Standard bag + ] ideal: 5.01, proposed: 4.99, proposed(non-stop): 4.95, 17-stop: 4.85
NotZ Hard bag] ideal: 5.02, proposed: 5.00, proposed(non-stop): 4.97, 17-stop: 4.88
NotZ Hard bag + ] ideal: 5.07, proposed: 5.03, proposed(non-stop): 5.03, 17-stop: 4.96
Here, "ideal" means ideal stratagy. I reveal one additional token only if the expectation will be increased considering all cases. It's the upper bound if you don't know the future information.
With above stratagy, you can achieve below table in standard NotZ.
| name |
0 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
exp |
|---|
| ideal |
3.6% |
58.1% |
9.6% |
13.6% |
15.1% |
4.98 |
| proposed |
3.7% |
60.1% |
9.6% |
10.2% |
16.3% |
4.96 |
| nonstop |
11.2% |
44.0% |
13.6% |
12.9% |
18.3% |
4.86 |
| 17stop |
8.8% |
48.9% |
14.8% |
13.9% |
13.7% |
4.76 |
| 12/13/17stop |
2.9% |
61.7% |
11.6% |
11.7% |
12.1% |
4.83 |
|
- 17stop: we stop whenever the sum is 17 or above
- 12/13/17stop: In addition to 17stop, we stop if the sume is 12 or 13 (not 14~16).
(modified Oct 8, 2021)
